Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 19.104155 23.042164 27.382040 32.492297 38.316682 44.719924 52.262630
2025-09-07 13.530157 18.711161 25.011959 33.116297 43.133759 54.977636 69.896836
2025-09-14 9.887299 15.343881 22.537079 32.450184 45.470724 61.693852 83.107674
2025-09-21 7.956439 13.625022 21.616935 33.257710 49.285781 70.062239 98.447554
2025-09-28 5.902596 11.225627 19.273362 31.666142 49.533717 73.584913 107.519303
2025-10-05 5.019968 10.402701 19.008401 32.844913 53.501038 82.093851 123.393557
2025-10-12 4.245403 9.576823 18.574536 33.642548 56.872469 89.854518 138.505818
2025-10-19 3.590099 8.809775 18.094550 34.254870 59.924426 97.226191 153.304211
2025-10-26 3.093996 8.228436 17.822737 35.121669 63.347348 105.215618 169.214658
2025-11-02 2.512316 7.331307 16.851249 34.697206 64.674129 110.127393 180.838820
2025-11-09 2.107962 6.713466 16.290051 34.881608 66.923244 116.446324 194.667154
2025-11-16 1.727830 6.047257 15.527740 34.608569 68.360131 121.534977 206.796530
2025-11-23 1.306794 5.174984 14.270112 33.412745 68.362751 124.706450 216.677886
2025-11-30 1.095979 4.803522 14.013275 34.083050 71.621838 133.195992 235.053665
2025-12-07 0.842125 4.199231 13.123944 33.404010 72.435737 137.767068 247.520383
2025-12-14 0.714070 3.945650 12.998815 34.230073 75.967087 146.869447 267.324311
2025-12-21 0.506249 3.295688 11.768199 32.602181 74.858767 148.211947 274.866235
2025-12-28 0.441349 3.170821 11.859851 33.807901 79.106554 158.682672 297.304565
2026-01-04 0.373450 2.995961 11.782609 34.623649 82.640708 168.051093 318.215460
2026-01-11 0.311071 2.808346 11.631965 35.249811 85.827337 176.918658 338.543139
2026-01-18 0.264311 2.670093 11.597829 36.136108 89.562736 186.854863 360.882597
2026-01-25 0.200354 2.379508 11.036155 35.702111 90.613769 192.090841 375.554072
2026-02-01 0.159077 2.188892 10.746212 35.890658 92.924615 199.623772 394.244125